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- 🚀 ETH jumped to $4,600 this morning, up 8.69% in 24h!
Just shy of the $4,891 ATH—think it breaks through?
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ETH futures open interest skyrocketed to a new high of 45,000 USD! Can Ethereum's pump momentum continue?
In mid-August, the price of Ethereum (ETH) strongly broke through $4,500, stimulated by US inflation data coming in lower than expected, which boosted market risk appetite. However, data from the derivation market shows that the leveraged long positions behind this surge have not expanded correspondingly. While the number of futures open contracts has reached a historical high, on-chain activity and fundamentals are showing signs of fatigue. Does this mean that the pump in ETH could be difficult to sustain?
ETH Price and Futures Open Interest Hit New Highs
(Source: Coinglass)
On August 12, the price of ETH once reached $4,518, driving the total amount of futures open interest to $60.8 billion, a significant increase from $47 billion a week earlier. Although this figure set a historical high, in terms of contract quantity, it is still about 11% lower than the peak of 15.5 million ETH at the end of July.
This means that the nominal growth of open contracts comes more from price increases rather than a large inflow of leveraged positions.
Leverage Long Positions Demand and Derivation Data
(Source: Laevitas)
The derivatives market shows that the demand for long positions leverage is not strong. The annualized premium for ETH perpetual contracts is currently around 11%, which is in the neutral range; it would only be considered overheated for long positions if it exceeds 13%.
The premium rate of the monthly futures contract fell to 8% after reaching 11% on Monday, indicating that despite ETH rising over 32% in 10 days, the long positions sentiment has not yet recovered to the levels seen during the bull market peak.
Layer-1 Competition and On-Chain Activity Weakness
(Source: DefiLlama)
Although institutional funds continue to flow into ETH through spot ETFs, on-chain data shows a decline in ecosystem vitality.
Total Value Locked (TVL): decreased by 7% over the past 30 days, from 25.4 million ETH to 23.3 million ETH.
On-chain fees: The weekly base fee is only $7.5 million, down 27% from last quarter, and lower than Solana ($9.6 million) and Tron ($14.3 million).
In addition, large companies such as Stripe, Circle, Tether, and JPMorgan are launching their own Layer-1 blockchains, rather than relying on Ethereum Layer-2 solutions, which intensifies market concerns about the competitiveness of ETH as the infrastructure for Web3.
Expert Opinions and Market Interpretations
Crypto observer techleadhd pointed out that many companies choose to build their own Layer-1 because the demand for decentralized tokenized assets and stablecoin businesses is relatively low, and they tend to favor a closed ecosystem to avoid capital flowing into the public network.
This trend indicates that Ethereum lacks appeal in certain enterprise-level application scenarios, and the incentives for Layer-2 integration are limited.
Market Outlook and Risks
In the short term, the trend of ETH will depend on the following factors:
Leverage long positions returning: If the derivation premium rises above 13%, it will indicate a warming of long positions sentiment.
On-chain activity rebounds: The rebound of TVL and transaction fees will be a signal of ecological recovery.
Layer-1 competitive landscape: If Ethereum can attract more enterprise-level applications back, it will help solidify its market position.
However, if the on-chain indicators remain sluggish and the demand for long positions fails to recover, the high levels of open contracts for ETH futures may be difficult to maintain, and prices could face downward pressure.
Conclusion
ETH futures open interest has reached an all-time high, reflecting the market's strong interest in Ethereum. However, the underlying leveraged long positions and on-chain fundamentals have not strengthened in tandem. For investors, it is essential to be cautious of high-level fluctuations and pullback risks in the short term, while closely monitoring changes in on-chain data and sentiment in the derivation market. Gate will continue to track ETH market dynamics and provide users with the latest price analysis and trading strategies.