Bitcoin rose 5.1% over the week, approaching the historical high of $123,000, while USDT whales' unusual movements reveal potential market turning point signals | BTC price prediction

Bitcoin has continued its strong rebound this week, with the current price breaking through the $120,000 mark, just a step away from the historical high of $123,000, and a rise of 5.1% over the past 7 days. Key on-chain data shows that large USDT transfer activities on the TRON network (especially single transactions exceeding $10 million labeled as 'super whales') can serve as leading indicators for predicting BTC price direction. Currently, the daily USDT transfer volume exceeding $10 million has not reached the $5 billion warning line, indicating that whales have not yet engaged in large-scale selling. Meanwhile, analysis of order scale in the futures market shows that retail investor trading has increased recently, while institutional investors may be holding their positions. If there is no large-scale distribution, Bitcoin still has the potential to break above its historical high.

【Price Trend: Strong Rebound Aiming for Historical Highs】 Bitcoin performed brilliantly this week, successfully recovering the key psychological level of 120,000 USD, currently trading above 120,000 USD, just a stone's throw away from its historical highest point (ATH) of 123,000 USD. In the past 7 trading days, Bitcoin recorded an approximate 5.1% rise, leading mainstream crypto assets.

【On-chain Signal: TRON Chain USDT Whale Transfer Holds Secrets】 As Bitcoin price fluctuates, on-chain transfer data of USDT (TRC-20) on the TRON network provides a unique perspective for understanding current market behavior. CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha identified patterns that may indicate a turning point in Bitcoin prices by tracking TRC-20 USDT transaction flows.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

• Taha categorizes transactions into six groups: from $100 retail trades to single transfers of over $10 million for "Super Whale" transactions.
• This analysis aims to distinguish between everyday market activities and institutional trading behavior.

【Whale Alert: Daily Transfers Exceeding $5 Billion May Signal Selling Pressure】 Taha's research found a key signal: when the total amount of single transactions over 10 million USDT on the TRON network breaks 5 billion USD in a single day, it often coincides with significant Profit-Taking behavior in the Bitcoin market.

• Such activities usually involve exchanging BTC for USDT, followed by transferring the stablecoin to a private wallet, thereby reducing buying pressure in the spot market.
• Historical Case Evidence:
  • July 16: The total transfer amount of over ten million USD Tether (USDT) reached 5.2 billion USD, followed by a 4.5% decline in BTC price.
  • July 23: Total amount of similar transfers 5.8 billion USD, followed by a 3.8% drop in BTC within 48 hours.
• Current Status: The latest data shows that such large-scale transfer activities are currently absent. This indicates that major holders (Whales) are not actively selling BTC for USDT at the current price level. The absence of outflows from Whales may suggest that large investors are choosing to hold (HODL) rather than exit.

[Market Participant Transition: Futures Data Reveals Retail Investors Entering, Whales Lurking] Another analyst from CryptoQuant, ShayanMarkets, provides another window to observe changes in market participants by studying the average execution size of orders in the Bitcoin futures market.

(Source: CryptoQuant)

• This indicator is calculated by total trading volume divided by the number of executed orders, helping to determine whether market activity is dominated by retail investors or large institutional traders (Whales).
• Historical Pattern: Data from late 2024 to early 2025 shows a Whale Dominance Period, which coincided with a strong rise in Bitcoin.
• Recent Changes: In the past few weeks, the number of small-scale orders from retail investors has significantly increased, while large transactions driven by whales have decreased.
• Interpretation of Meaning: This shift suggests that large buyers may be holding their positions purchased at lower price levels or waiting for new market conditions to emerge before re-entering with significant scale.
• Historical Relevance: Previously, whale-dominated activity has continued to occur in high market areas, usually associated with the Distribution Phase, where large holders take profits.

[Potential Direction: Possibility of Breaking Historical Highs Still Exists] Currently, there is a lack of typical Whale distribution behavior in the market, which preserves the possibility for Bitcoin to break through the historical high (123,000 USD) - provided that there is no new significant selling pressure from large investors in the short term.

【Conclusion: Critical Period of Bull-Bear Game, Whale Movements Determine the Market】 Bitcoin is strongly rebounding, approaching its historical high, with market sentiment leaning towards optimism. The "quiet period" of USDT whale transfers on the TRON blockchain and the rising activity of retail investors in the futures market together outline a unique picture of the current market: whales are temporarily holding their positions, while retail investors are actively participating. This structure reduces the risk of significant pullbacks due to concentrated whale dumping in the short term, creating conditions for prices to attempt to break through previous highs. However, investors still need to remain highly vigilant for the recovery signals of large USDT transfers on-chain, as they have historically been leading indicators for market turns. Whether Bitcoin can successfully break through and stabilize above USD 123,000 will depend on the dynamics between the scale of incremental capital entering the market and the willingness of existing whales to hold positions. The on-chain data and price interactions in the coming week may provide key guidance for the market's mid-term direction.