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- 🎉 Hey Gate Square friends! Non-stop perks and endless excitement—our hottest posting reward events are ongoing now! The more you post, the more you win. Don’t miss your exclusive goodies! 🚀
🆘 #Gate 2025 Semi-Year Community Gala# | Square Content Creator TOP 10
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Post your - 💙 Gate Square #Gate Blue Challenge# 💙
Show your limitless creativity with Gate Blue!
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August 11 – 20, 2025
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Macroeconomic Analysis: In the market game, waiting for economic data to clarify investment direction
Macro Weekly Report: The market is still in a game phase, and the trend is yet to be clarified.
1. Macro Review of This Week
1. Market Overview
Market sentiment remained low this week. The S&P 500 index fell below the 200-day moving average, triggering a large amount of sell-offs. The VIX index remained high above 20, and the Put/Call ratio increased, reflecting a heightened sense of market panic. The cryptocurrency market is only mildly stimulated by favorable policy, and overall performance is weak.
2. Economic Data Analysis
The manufacturing PMI new orders index has fallen below the boom-bust line, and the employment index is below expectations, indicating a cautious trend in the manufacturing sector. The non-manufacturing PMI has exceeded expectations, suggesting that the service industry remains relatively robust. GDP forecasts have been downgraded to -2.4%, mainly due to the drag from net exports, while consumer spending remains stable. Employment data shows a divergence, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate, slowing job growth, and limited wage growth.
3. Federal Reserve Policy and Liquidity
Powell stated that the Federal Reserve tends to be cautious and is reiterating the 2% inflation target, believing that the economic fundamentals are stable, but may consider cutting interest rates if employment continues to weaken. The Federal Reserve's liquidity has marginally improved, but market sentiment remains weak. Short-term financing rates are declining, and the market is betting on future interest rate cuts, while the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has rebounded, alleviating recession expectations.
2. Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week
The market is still in the stage of expected speculation, and the trend is unclear. Institutional funds tend to be cautious, making it difficult to form a clear direction in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the micro changes in economic data from March to April and wait for more data to support trend judgment. One should not be overly pessimistic; the economy has not significantly deteriorated, and investors should manage their positions well to maintain a balance between offense and defense.
Key data next week: Pay attention to CPI, PPI, consumer confidence index, etc., to assess changes in inflation and consumption trends.