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Many people do not understand how scientific understanding works. It is all probabilistic.
Nothing is certain. But we still can use this probabilistic knowledge at our advantage. Even flying in airplane is a calculated gamble.
So not understanding this in the context of prediction models of Bitcoin is really a limitation in understanding how reality works, not the process of modelling.
This uncertainty applies even to gravity itself.
The Earth's orbit around the Sun can be considered stable for very long periods, essentially billions of years, when considering only the gravitational influence of the Sun.
However, when accounting for the gravitational pull of other planets and celestial bodies, the orbit's stability can be predicted with high accuracy for a few million years.