The market has entered a stage of high-level fluctuations, and structural risks are gradually emerging.

Recently, the market is showing a situation where growth signals and a surge of funds coexist, but this may conceal potential structural risks. The market may have entered a phase of high-level fluctuations.

Market Overview

• Macroeconomic environment is warming: Easing trade rhetoric and cooling inflation have boosted market sentiment.
• Capital momentum weakens: inflows of stablecoins and ETFs continue to decline, and new buying is insufficient.
• Price and momentum divergence: Bitcoin price is rising, but capital, off-market premiums, and ETFs are all cooling down, increasing the risk of a pullback.

Macroeconomic and Market Environment

Trade fluctuations and CPI data have triggered short-term market turmoil, while the corporate bond boom supports the stock market but exacerbates the U.S. debt crisis. The combination of high leverage among consumers and businesses, along with Federal Reserve policy restrictions, is beginning to reveal systemic liquidity risks.

Capital Flow Analysis

External Fund Flow

• ETF funds: This week inflow was 609 million, and the inflow amount continues to decline.
• Stablecoins: This week, an additional 877 million was issued, with an average daily issuance of 112 million, which is at a low level.

Market Sentiment Indicator

• OTC Premium: The premium on stablecoins continues to decline underwater.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Technical aspect: The market is in a fluctuating upward range
• On-chain chip distribution: Chips over $100,000 increased

Ethereum (ETH)

• The trend is weaker than BTC, the ETH/BTC ratio has broken down, and funds continue to flow back to BTC.
• On-chain activity: An increase in active addresses may indicate that a phase of bottoming out has been completed.

On-chain Data Analysis

stablecoin capital flow

This week, the total amount of stablecoins has slightly increased to 211.256 billion, with an issuance of only 877 million, a significant drop compared to previous periods. The daily average issuance has decreased to 125 million, reaching a new low in nearly four weeks, indicating a noticeable slowdown in capital inflows. This may reflect a market entering a wait-and-see phase, with marginal liquidity weakening in the short term, warranting caution against potential consolidation pressure.

ETF capital flow

The inflow of BTC ETFs has slowed for three consecutive weeks, with only a net inflow of 609 million this week, significantly reducing the marginal impact of funds. Although the price is still within the upward channel, it diverges from the underlying capital situation, indicating a lack of upward momentum and adjustment risks. If there is no significant rebound in ETF inflows in the future, coupled with a slowdown in stablecoin issuance, the market may enter a phase of short to medium-term fluctuations or technical corrections.

OTC Premium/Discount

This week, the off-exchange premium continued to decline below water, diverging from the price, indicating that the inflow of off-exchange funds is weakening and the market's new momentum is sluggish. This trend aligns with the slowdown in the issuance rate of stablecoins and a significant decrease in ETF inflows, signaling that the market is in a stage of existing stock competition, lacking new driving forces.

URPD analysis

The proportion of chips in the Bitcoin price range of $101,800 to $104,000 has increased by 1.72%, indicating that a market consensus is gradually forming in this area. This chip accumulation reflects a strong support attribute for this range, but it may also become a short-term resistance zone. In the current context of continued net outflows of ETF funds and a slowdown in the issuance of stablecoins, the lack of new buying momentum may limit price increases.

Changes in the Structure of Wallet Addresses

• 10k-100k large addresses: Reduce positions when prices surge, and buy back a small amount during pullbacks, reflecting a short-term hedging and high-level adjustment strategy.
• 1k-10k addresses: Slightly increased holdings during the upward process, quickly reduced positions at high points, indicating strong trading activity and obvious trend chasing and profit-taking.
• 100-1k addresses: Continuous steady accumulation, no significant reduction observed, reflecting that small and medium-sized funds still have a certain level of confidence in the market.

Overall, the attitude of large funds is cautious, while the composition of small and medium-sized funds constitutes an important support for the current price range. The market is in a stage of wait-and-see and gaming.

Market Pattern Analysis

The market retreated to test the support level near $100,000 after a surge on the 1-hour chart, and the current trading range has been flat for nearly 8 days. The 4-hour chart shows that the indicators have been repaired, indicating a possibility of further upward movement. However, considering the recent divergence in capital data, without significant positive news, the momentum may weaken after this upward push.