Cherish the high-quality encryption assets in your hands.

In the online exchange over the weekend, some readers asked:

Bitcoin is constantly reaching new highs now. Is it time to start considering the price situation in order to exit?

I am very cautious about this.

This is not to say that I won't sell or hold permanently, but rather that for high-quality assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, I will increasingly seriously assess whether their prices are excessively high when selling at peaks. If they are not excessively high, but just comparatively high, I tend to continue holding without selling.

So in the future, I will likely only consider selling them under three circumstances:

First, I need to use money;

Second, their fundamentals have changed;

Thirdly, I think their prices are ridiculously high.

I won't repeat the first two situations here.

The definition of what constitutes an "outrageously high" price is very subjective. Given the current state of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, this year I wouldn't consider selling Bitcoin if its price is below $150,000 and Ethereum if its price is below $6,000.

Whether it will be sold at a price higher than these two depends on the situation at that time; it is impossible to determine now.

Why?

Because as I have come this far, I increasingly appreciate the advice of some predecessors in the investment field:

• High-quality assets in the world are very rare. When investors discover a high-quality asset, they must cherish it and hold onto it.

• Many investors who have gained substantial returns from their investments have become friends with time, allowing high-quality assets to continuously accumulate value through the fermentation of time, bringing returns.

The two admonitions listed here are not for transactional participants, but only for participants like me who are not at all good at trading.

In my opinion, Bitcoin and Ethereum are nothing less than rare and high-quality assets. What I need to do is to operate according to the two pieces of advice above: let time add value to them and hold onto them as much as possible.

I'm sure many readers are familiar with the history of Bitcoin. I believe that many readers are more familiar with what kind of person can really get rich returns in this process---------- which is to hold for the long term and completely ignore short-term fluctuations. The vast majority of early participants in swing trading in this process basically sold off their coins, and the return on the loss of that operation is far from comparable to the gains obtained by those volatile traders.

History does not repeat itself. Bitcoin has come this far, and it is unlikely to repeat the myth of explosive growth in the future. However, as a relatively optimistic participant, I am still quite optimistic about Bitcoin's future valuation.

I believe that in my lifetime I will see Bitcoin rise to $1 million, and that this time won't be too long. From now, in about 10 to 15 years, we will be able to see this goal.

That is to say, I believe that in 10 ~ 15 years, Bitcoin will have at least 10 times more upside than now.

I'm happy with the gains.

In that case, during this process, as long as it doesn't rise too absurdly at some point, I won't care about it and will quietly wait for that moment to arrive.

In addition to the optimistic outlook for the future that makes me more willing to take a conservative approach, the more important points are:

At the current price of Bitcoin ($120,000), once it is sold, it may be very difficult for retail investors with limited funds to get it back.

People are greatly influenced by psychological factors: if an item sells for $120,000, many people are unlikely to consider buying it back when it drops to $110,000 or $100,000, because psychologically, there is not a significant difference between $110,000, $100,000, and $120,000. It might not be until it drops to $80,000 or $60,000 that many investors who sold might consider buying it back.

But who can guarantee that Bitcoin will definitely drop to the price levels of 80,000 or 60,000 again?

If it doesn't, the vast majority of investors will say goodbye to Bitcoin and never get on the train again.

The situation with Bitcoin now is completely different from a few years ago when it was only a few thousand dollars. Back then, if you sold too early, investors would feel regret but could grit their teeth, save up for a few months, and buy it back. At this price level, the vast majority of retail investors with a salary probably couldn't afford even one Bitcoin even if they went without food and drink for two years.

So my advice to investors who still have at least one Bitcoin in hand is: unless absolutely necessary, and if you are not very confident in your trading skills, do not casually consider "selling high and buying low" for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have already reached such price levels.