Has the Crypto Assets market become numb to recurring policy signals?

Recently, when talking to many industry veterans, they generally believe that the market changes in 2024/2025 are difficult to predict, and many experienced traders are unable to make profits. An interesting point of view is that 2017/2018 was a "community-driven market", where new asset issuance models created a wealth effect; 2020/2021 was a "technology-driven market", where new asset plays ( like DeFi and NFT ) brought about a wealth effect; while 2024/2025 will be a "policy-driven market", where market changes mainly depend on policy changes.

This article will focus on recent policy-driven events and discuss the extent to which policy public information affects the prices of Crypto Assets. Before that, it is important to clarify a key assumption: people will gradually become numb to signals that continue to appear over the long term, with reasons including the smoothing of various strategies and people's perception becoming dull, etc. This is similar to the theory of diminishing marginal utility in economics.

Since the approval of ETFs in 2024, in addition to traditional exchange funding rates, lending rates, volatility, K-line and other technical indicators, the market also regards the daily net inflow/outflow data of ETFs as an important reference for predicting price trends. If the net inflow/outflow data of ETFs is considered public information, how does the market view this data? Will this data have a significant impact on prices?

Taking ETH as an example, its price has a positive correlation with the inflow/outflow of ETFs. If there is a net inflow the previous day, the probability of a price increase the next day is relatively high, and vice versa. However, the price trend of BTC does not show a significant correlation with the net inflow/outflow of ETFs, especially after a certain political figure's victory in November, this correlation has gradually weakened.

Overall, the market's sensitivity to intuitive public market information will gradually decrease, but this does not mean that such information is completely ineffective.

Recently, a political figure has made multiple statements regarding tariff issues, including the imposition of tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum products, and new tariffs on Canadian dairy products and lumber. Analyzing the impact of these events on BTC and ETH prices, it was found that the effects of the first instance on December 1, ( and the third instance on March 4, ) regarding tariffs were the most significant, while the second instance on February 13, ( and the fourth instance on March 7, ) had a smaller impact. The fifth instance on March 11, ( even saw a price increase.

However, does this mean that the market has become immune to this politician's "tariff strategy"? Analyzing the inflow/outflow situation of ETFs, there was already a large-scale outflow of BTC ETFs before March 1, which is speculated to be for hedging or exiting the market. This may explain why existing ETF holders are not easily affected by tariff issues.

![Is the crypto community still concerned about Trump's tariff policy: Has the story of "The Wolf is Coming" desensitized the crypto community gradually?])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-ff60e0e065ffeff6db9f9668b58a538d.webp(

The market reactions on March 4th and 7th are also noteworthy. The tariff imposition on March 4th was within expectations, but the market reacted more dramatically due to the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike. The impact of the tariff remarks on March 7th was limited, as there were also news from the Crypto Assets summit and strategic reserve announcements on the same day, with market expectations exceeding the actual policy impact.

Although people may feel numb to long-term continuous information, the current tariff issue has not yet reached this threshold. The market reaction on March 11 seems "desensitized," but the deeper reason may be that risk-averse funds have already withdrawn, and the traders remaining in the market have taken the "tariff" factor into consideration.

The market is not truly numb or desensitized, but has carefully calculated the risks. Therefore, investors still need to closely monitor policy changes while also considering various factors such as market sentiment and capital flow.

![Is the crypto community still concerned about Trump's tariff policy: Has the story of "The Wolf Is Coming" gradually desensitized the crypto community?])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-2955031ce58bf69f3a157e29ffa88aa0.webp(