The cryptocurrency market welcomes a new order in the Trump era

In 2025, the global financial market witnessed significant changes. After Trump returned to the White House, he continued the economic nationalism policies, implementing measures such as increasing tariffs, reshaping supply chains, and reinforcing the dominance of the dollar. At the same time, with the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit, the intensification of the global "de-dollarization" trend, and the rise of the cryptocurrency market worldwide, the Trump administration's attitude towards cryptocurrencies underwent significant changes. Against this backdrop, the concept of cryptocurrency strategic reserves gradually emerged, becoming the focus of market attention.

This report will delve into the impact of Trump's administration's tariff policies on global financial markets, as well as how the potential promotion of a cryptocurrency strategic reserve plan may affect the market performance of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Additionally, we will analyze possible changes in regulatory policies, adjustments in institutional investors' asset allocation strategies, and the future development direction of the overall cryptocurrency market.

1. Trump's Economic Policy and the Macroeconomic Background of the Cryptocurrency Market

1.1 Tariff Policy: Reshaping the Global Economic Order and the Impact on Capital Markets

Trump's economic policy has always been centered around "America First". This strategy not only affects the economic landscape within the United States but also profoundly alters the operational patterns of global capital markets and financial systems. In 2025, after being re-elected, the market generally expects his government to continue or even strengthen past economic policies, particularly in areas such as tariff policies, dollar strategy, fiscal stimulus, regulatory environment, and global capital flows, all of which will have far-reaching effects on the cryptocurrency market.

In the context of an increasingly decentralized global economic system, the cryptocurrency market is gradually becoming an important part of the international financial system. Mainstream crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are not only regarded as investment targets but are also seen by some countries and institutions as assets to hedge against dollar risk. The application of stablecoins in international trade settlements is also increasing, promoting the process of dollar digitalization. The economic policies of the Trump administration will have a profound impact on these trends; its tariff policies may accelerate the allocation of global funds to crypto assets like Bitcoin, dollar liquidity management will affect the supply of funds in the crypto market, and U.S. regulatory policies will determine the legitimacy and development space of the crypto market, while the strategic reserve plan for crypto assets that Trump may promote is more likely to trigger changes in the global market.

One of the core economic policies of the Trump administration is its aggressively expansionary trade policy. In the face of the new economic situation in 2025, Trump is likely to restart the trade war, imposing tariffs on economies such as China, the EU, and Japan, in an attempt to re-establish U.S. manufacturing competitiveness through external pressure. The direct consequence of this policy will be an increase in uncertainty in the international capital markets, with global investors seeking safe-haven assets, and decentralized assets like Bitcoin may become new hedging tools in such an environment.

In addition to the impact of the trade war on global capital markets, the fiscal policy of the Trump administration is also an important factor affecting the cryptocurrency market. In 2025, Trump may adopt measures similar to tax cuts, large-scale infrastructure investments, and increased military spending to stimulate economic growth in the United States. These policies may boost the U.S. economy in the short term, but they will also exacerbate the fiscal deficit and put pressure on the U.S. dollar credit system. If the market expects the Federal Reserve to resume quantitative easing in the future, market liquidity will increase, which often benefits Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

The liquidity of 1.2 dollars and its cyclical relationship with the crypto market

As the global reserve currency, the status of the US dollar may change under the policies of the Trump administration. In 2025, the Trump administration may take measures to promote the depreciation of the dollar in order to boost exports and reduce the trade deficit. If a trend of dollar depreciation is established, global investors may seek other assets to hedge against the risk of dollar depreciation, with Bitcoin, gold, and other safe-haven assets potentially becoming new directions for capital inflows. Especially globally, some countries have already begun to explore the process of de-dollarization. If the policies of the Trump administration accelerate the process of de-dollarization, the global capital demand for decentralized assets like Bitcoin may further increase, driving the crypto market into a new phase of development.

The domestic cryptocurrency regulatory policy in the United States may undergo significant changes during the Trump era. In 2025, the Trump administration may adjust the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory framework, such as reducing the tax burden on crypto assets, easing legal restrictions on crypto trading and investment, and supporting the further development of financial products like Bitcoin ETFs. If these policies are implemented, they will bring tremendous growth opportunities for the U.S. crypto market, while also creating a demonstration effect on the global market, prompting other countries to adjust their attitudes toward the crypto market.

It is worth noting that the Trump administration may promote the establishment of a "Cryptocurrency Strategic Reserve Program", incorporating cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin into a national-level reserve system. This policy proposal may be based on multiple factors, including countering the credit risk of the US dollar, seizing a dominant position in the global cryptocurrency market, and ensuring America's leading advantage in the digital asset field in international competition. If the US government decides to hold Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, then Bitcoin will experience unprecedented market recognition and may become an important part of the global financial system.

1.3 Institutional investors' reallocation in the crypto market

In recent years, institutional investors' acceptance of crypto assets has gradually increased. With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the entry of large financial institutions, crypto assets are gradually becoming a part of traditional investment portfolios. If the Trump administration advances a strategic reserve for crypto assets and relaxes restrictions on institutional investors holding crypto assets, significant changes in market structure will occur. In the long term, this may allow mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum to enter more national and institutional investment portfolios, further driving market maturation.

Overall, the economic policies of the Trump administration will have a profound impact on the crypto market. The trade war may accelerate the flow of capital into crypto assets, while fiscal deficits and the depreciation of the dollar may drive up the demand for Bitcoin. Additionally, adjustments in the regulatory environment could further promote the development of the US crypto market. If the Trump administration ultimately pushes for a strategic reserve plan for crypto assets, Bitcoin could see historic institutional recognition, fundamentally changing the landscape of the global financial system. In this process, the market needs to closely monitor the specific policy directions of the Trump administration, as well as the reactions of global capital markets to these policies, in order to seize future development opportunities in the crypto market.

2. Cryptocurrency Asset Strategic Reserve: Policy Background and Potential Impact

2.1 The policy background of the U.S. government's promotion of a strategic reserve of crypto assets

After the Trump administration comes to power again in 2025, the core of its economic policy will still revolve around "America First," which not only means re-examining the dollar's status as the global reserve currency but may also mean the government beginning to consider diversifying some national reserves to hedge against dollar credit risk. For a long time, the dollar, as the world's primary reserve currency, has given the United States unparalleled influence in the global financial system. However, in recent years, with the rising levels of U.S. debt, the widening fiscal deficit, adjustments in interest rate policies, and countries questioning the dollar's dominant position, the dollar's reserve status is being challenged.

The issue of the U.S. government's fiscal deficit has become a focal point of global market attention. Since 2020, the level of U.S. government debt has been soaring, and by the end of 2024, the U.S. national debt is expected to exceed $34 trillion and is still rapidly growing. This has weakened market confidence in the long-term value of the dollar, prompting countries to begin exploring reserve assets outside of the dollar. After the Trump administration took office, in order to further promote fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investment, the U.S. fiscal deficit issue may worsen further. If the market expects an increased risk of dollar depreciation, global central banks may accelerate adjustments to their reserve asset allocations, while decentralized assets like Bitcoin may become alternative choices outside of the dollar.

On the other hand, the acceleration of the de-dollarization process has also forced the U.S. government to rethink how to maintain its financial hegemony. In recent years, many countries around the world have reduced their reliance on the dollar in international trade settlements. For example, trade between Russia and China is gradually shifting towards local currency settlements, and countries like the UAE and India are also exploring the use of the renminbi or other currencies for oil trade settlements. This trend weakens the global influence of the dollar, prompting the U.S. government to adopt new measures to ensure its dominant position in the global financial system. If the Trump administration views crypto assets as a new global financial strategic tool, then Bitcoin may be formally included in the official reserve system of the United States as a potential weapon to hedge against the de-dollarization of the global financial system.

In addition, the Trump administration's attitude towards the cryptocurrency market is gradually changing. Although Trump publicly criticized Bitcoin in 2019, calling it "based on air, with no real value", his stance has clearly changed during the 2024 campaign. On one hand, Trump's team is gradually recognizing the potential of crypto assets in the future financial system and is trying to gain support from the crypto industry; on the other hand, U.S. institutional investors have significantly increased their holdings of Bitcoin in recent years, and some large financial institutions have launched Bitcoin spot ETFs, attracting billions of dollars in inflows. Against this backdrop, the U.S. government may realize that Bitcoin is no longer a marginalized asset class, but is becoming an important part of the global financial system. If the U.S. government wants to dominate this market, then establishing a "cryptocurrency strategic reserve" would be a strategic choice in line with its national interests.

The potential impact of 2.2 strategic reserves of crypto assets

First, this policy could greatly change the market's perception of Bitcoin's value and push the price of Bitcoin into a whole new valuation system. The current market's main pricing logic for Bitcoin is still based on its scarcity, inflation-hedging properties, and its role in the digital economy. However, if the U.S. government officially incorporates Bitcoin into its national reserves, it means that Bitcoin will shift from being an "alternative asset" to a "national-level reserve asset," and its market perception will undergo a fundamental change. For decades, gold has been an important part of global central bank reserves, and if Bitcoin is included in the same system, its market valuation could see exponential growth. The current global gold market is approximately $13 trillion, while the total market capitalization of Bitcoin is only about $1 trillion. If Bitcoin is granted reserve functions similar to gold, its market value could reach at least 30-50% of the gold market, which is over $4-6 trillion, corresponding to a Bitcoin price of over $200,000. This means that the U.S. government's policy decision will directly impact Bitcoin's long-term value and may trigger a new bull market.

Secondly, the implementation of this policy will have a subtle impact on the global reserve currency status of the dollar. Traditionally, the dollar has been able to become the world's primary reserve currency mainly due to the strength of the U.S. economy, the global coverage of dollar liquidity, and the stability of dollar-denominated assets. However, if the U.S. government begins to incorporate Bitcoin into its reserves, this could send a signal to the market that the U.S. government itself is considering the credit risk of the dollar and is trying to hedge against it through Bitcoin. This could exacerbate market concerns about the long-term stability of the dollar and prompt other countries to begin adjusting their reserve structures, leading to more central banks holding Bitcoin. Once this trend takes shape, it may weaken the global dominance of the dollar and accelerate the multipolarization process of the global financial system.

At the same time, the U.S. government's hold on Bitcoin could also impact the global geopolitical landscape. Currently, some countries are already attempting to incorporate Bitcoin into their national financial strategies, such as El Salvador becoming the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, and gradually increasing its national Bitcoin reserves. Additionally, countries like Russia and Iran are exploring the use of Bitcoin for international trade settlements to evade Western financial sanctions. If the U.S. government takes the lead in incorporating Bitcoin into its national reserve system, then other countries may have to make corresponding adjustments to avoid being in a passive position in the future global financial system competition. This could be.