Ethereum Price Breakthrough and Market Fluctuation: Ecological Transformation Under the Bull-Bear Showdown

On June 10, 2025, the price of Ethereum broke through $2,827, reaching a new high in 15 weeks. Behind this price movement lies a potential liquidation storm involving $1.8 billion in short positions. In this seemingly accidental market situation, the trading trajectory of a mysterious investor has become key to interpreting market sentiment.

According to on-chain data, a certain anonymous address completed two precise operations within 44 days:

1. April 27: Purchased 30,000 ETH at an average price of $1,830, total investment of $54.9 million;
2. May 27: Sold an equivalent amount of ETH at a price of $2,621, realizing a profit of $23.73 million, with a return rate of 43%;
3. June 10: Sold another 30,000 Ether, locking in a profit of 7.3 million dollars, with total profits reaching 31 million dollars.

This operation is not an isolated case. Data shows that Ethereum futures open interest has surpassed 40 billion USD for the first time, with the market leverage ratio nearing a critical point. The current liquidity distribution presents a delicate balance: there is a long liquidation risk of 2 billion USD concentrated around 2,600 USD, while there is a short liquidation risk of 1.8 billion USD lurking above 2,900 USD. This standoff between long and short positions means that any breakout in either direction could trigger a chain reaction.

As prices rise, the Ethereum ecosystem is undergoing structural changes. In the second quarter, the number of independent active addresses surged by 70%, peaking at 16.4 million on June 10. Among them, a certain Layer 2 network accounted for 72.81%, becoming the main growth driver, far exceeding Ethereum's mainnet's 14.8%. This "Layer 2 feeding back to the mainnet" model is completely different from the early DeFi development logic.

Despite Ethereum still holding 61% of the DeFi market with a TVL of $66 billion, its core revenue model is facing challenges:

• Network transaction fees have significantly decreased, only $43.3 million in the past 30 days;
• The staking yield remains sluggish, with an annualized rate of only 3.12%;
• Regulatory scrutiny has led to continuous outflows of funds from ETH spot ETFs.

These factors led to a decrease in the proportion of long-term holders from 63% to 55%, while short-term investors' selling volume increased by 47%. The technological upgrades failed to effectively translate into returns for holders, and the ecological prosperity instead became a driver of value dilution.

In the futures market, the open interest of ETH futures has surpassed 40 billion USD, indicating potential high fluctuation. Clearing data shows:

• There is a risk of $2 billion in long liquidations in the range of $2,600 to $2,665.
• Short positions of $1.8 billion face risk above $2,900;
• The participation of institutions is relatively low, with CME Ethereum futures accounting for only 9%.

Technical analysis shows that there are several key points in the current market.

• The daily Bollinger Bands have narrowed to 5%, the lowest level in recent times;
• The weekly indicators show divergence, with insufficient upward momentum;
• $2,800 has become the pivotal point for bulls and bears; a breakthrough could trigger a new wave of increases.

At a macro level, the political situation in the United States and central bank policies create a dual impact. The market has high expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025, but if the actual path deviates from expectations, it may have an impact on the crypto market.

Ethereum is facing multiple challenges and opportunities:

• Adjustment of the staking mechanism to optimize the node exit process;
• Layer2 revenue distribution mechanism reform;
• Regulatory policy changes may lead to short-term price Fluctuation.

Market experts believe that after breaking through $2,800, Ethereum may initiate a new round of upward movement. However, the essence of this capital game remains liquidity-driven, and the fate of the $1.8 billion short position will become a key indicator of the market's direction.